Lula’s win at 20% odds on Polymarket and Kalshi fuels prediction market debate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday's Brazilian runoff despite prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi pricing him at roughly 20% odds hours before the result, with Flávio Bolsonaro favored near 80%. Traders are now debating whether the markets mispriced the race or simply reflected late-breaking uncertainty. The episode matters for crypto because prediction markets are increasingly treated as real-money forecasting tools, and a high-profile miss could invite scrutiny of their liquidity and accuracy.